Checked reel · 12 Oct 2026
It uses real historical US market data from 1970 to 2026 to backtest a standard trend-following rule: sell stocks when they close below their 30-day moving average, sit in Treasury bills, and buy back when they rise above. On paper, trading with zero fees turned $1,000 into $568k versus $385k for buy-and-hold. But the real-world caveat is friction. Over 56 years, this rule triggers 1,160 trades. Charging a tiny 0.2% fee per trade completely destroys the advantage, leaving the strategy 85% behind basic buy-and-hold, even before capital gains taxes. It is a rare post that accurately highlights why active technical trading usually loses to simple index holding in practice.
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